Bioethanol is set to have and important role as a transition
solution for road transport, due to the need to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and the difficulty of immediately changing the road
transport fleet to electric vehicles.
Europe has decided to minimize its greenhouse gas emissions, for
which it has set short, medium and long term goals:
- RED I - 2020: 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in
relation to 1990, increasing renewable energy use up to 20%
compared to the total used, with 10% in the transport sector and
increasing energy efficiency to 20%.
- RED II - 2030: 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in
relation to 1990, increasing the use of renewable energy to 32%
compared to the total used, with 14% in the transport sector and
increasing to 32.5% the energy efficiency.
- 2050: reduce between 80 and 95% of greenhouse gas emissions in
relation to 1990, and make the economy efficient in relation to
energy use and with very low emission rates.
These objectives can currently only be met by increasing the use of
biofuels, so forecasts for ethanol demand until 2030 are increasing,
due to the following estimates:
- Restrictions on the use of vehicles with diesel engines. New car
registration trend has changed, being gasoline cars the majority
of new car registrations. Estimates are that the diesel car fleet
will go down to 15%. In 2012 it was 60%.
- Increase in the number of vehicles in circulation, mostly using
gasoline or hybrids.
- The massive use of electric vehicles (BEV or PHEV) will not occur
before the year 2030, it is estimated that the sales of these
vehicles in 2030 will be only between 30 and 40%.
- Second generation technology not available at commercial scale
for the medium term.
The demand for ethanol can be incentivized through the following
- European and national regulations, which involve the use in a
greater proportion of biofuels.
- The demand for gasoline, which should continue to increase based
on new cars registration even manufacturers are determined to
increase the efficiency of internal combustion engines.
- The continuous incorporation of E10 as most common blend in EU.
- The increase in the demand for mixtures with higher ethanol content
(E85), due to certain positive fiscal considerations that make it
a more economical and sustainable alternative. This fuel can be
used in Flex Fuel vehicles or those converted to that system.